Oklahoma-Auburn prediction: Who will win and why?

After an uninspiring SEC debut and a change at quarterback, No. 21 Oklahoma travels to The Plains to face Auburn in college football’s Week 5 matchup on Saturday.

OU’s offense ground to a halt against Tennessee’s defensive front a week ago, and quarterback Jackson Arnold literally blew most of his team’s chances in what ended with a 10-point home loss in the program’s first SEC game.

As a result, the Sooners will have Michael Hawkins Jr. under center this week, and if he plays well in his first start, maybe he can move forward. After coming on to Arnold on the bench against the Vols last week, he went 11 of 18 for 132 yards and a touchdown, giving the offense as much life as he did that game.

Auburn’s offense is still a work in progress, switching between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown at quarterback, but both lost to Arkansas last week and the team has a 3-point loss to Cal where Thorne had 4 picks. .

What can we expect from the match? Here’s what you need to watch and our updated predictions for the game as Oklahoma and Auburn face off in this new-look SEC football game.

1. Who is Michael Hawkins? Oklahoma, which had a dismal offense in its SEC debut last week, is pulling the trigger on a new quarterback, replacing former five-star receiver Jackson Arnold and his fumblitis case with a true freshman option.

OU’s offensive concerns aren’t limited to Arnold, of course, as Hawkins gave the team a whirlwind as well, leading its lone touchdown drive while passing for 132 yards and rushing for 22 more. He can only go as far as his line allows, though, and the early returns from the Sooners’ protection aren’t great.

He has the mobility to overcome some of those issues and can extend plays, but Hawkins can only emerge as OU’s real man if he can develop a rhythm, take mid-range shots early and show he can read the defense and get out. -make scopes smart.

2. Strength and weakness. Auburn’s offense hasn’t been very good lately either, as it has been working thanks to a total of 4 interceptions from two quarterbacks in Payton Thorne and Hank Brown in the loss to Arkansas a week ago.

Earlier this season the Tigers looked exponentially better at this stage, throwing 10 TD passes and no picks in the first 2 games, but have since thrown 3 homers and 8 picks in 2 losses.

Auburn has the second-worst turnover margin in the nation (minus-2.5) with 14 turnovers, while Oklahoma’s stellar defense is No. 1 in the nation with 12 turnovers and No. 3 in the FBS with plus-1.75 per game. Second best at 1.75. 7 overall.

3. The brunette is on the ground. The Tigers, who still have an identity crisis in their passing offense, want to capitalize on the potential offensive advantage by running the ball behind Jarquez Hunter.

The senior running back averaged 7.1 yards per carry and scored two touchdowns, helping Auburn rush for nearly 50 more yards per game than OU has ever rushed.

However, the issue is again turnover. Hunter and Damari Alston have fumbled twice this season and may struggle to find adequate rushing lanes against a Sooner front that ranks 27th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game and can limit gains near the line.

Most analytical models favor the Sooners beating the Tigers this weekend.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer forecasting model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma is projected to win the game in a 56.8 percent majority of the latest computer simulations.

Auburn’s odds of winning are 43.2 percent.

According to the model’s latest prediction, Oklahoma is expected to be 2.8 points better than Auburn on the same field.

More… Oklahoma-Auburn forecast: What analytics say

According to comments on FanDuel Sportsbook, Auburn is a 1-point favorite against Oklahoma.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 44.5.

And he pegs Auburn’s outright win odds at -115 and Oklahoma’s at -104.

Most bettors are giving Oklahoma the upset, as 76 percent of bettors predict the Sooners will get their first win in the SEC this weekend.

The remaining 24 percent of bets predict Auburn to win the game.

Slow offense, haphazard pass protection and stupefying quarterback play are the order of the day among these new SEC rivals, but there’s a big advantage on the field.

Oklahoma still plays physical and tough defense at the line of scrimmage. He has the size to pick up Auburn’s guard, get their QBs out of the rhythm they have, and will be in position to take advantage when a turnover is likely.

Auburn emerging as the week’s favorite reflects many bettors’ concerns about the Sooners’ offense. five buyers listedbut OU is still the superior defense in the trenches, and that’s what counts the most winning games in the SEC.

College Football HQ selections…

More… Oklahoma vs Auburn score prediction from expert football model

When: Saturday, September 28
Time: 14:30 Central
TV: ABC network

–

Match odds are updated periodically and may change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Calendar | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: bookmark | Rankings | Elections