Will China be able to break up the Airbus-Boeing duopoly?

Boeing is still reeling from the consequences of its short-haul airliner, the 737 Max, being blown up by a panel in January. This model, which first flew in 2016, faced safety problems. The company was forced to slow production as regulators scrutinized safety procedures and angered airlines whose deliveries were delayed. Airbus, which displayed more aircraft than its berated rival at Farnborough, had its own problems. Supply chain disruptions have forced the postponement of plans to increase deliveries of short-haul jets. At current production rates, it would take Airbus approximately 12 years to produce the 8,600 aircraft on its order books; It will take a similar amount of time for Boeing to fulfill its 6,150 unfinished orders.

In the background is increasing demand. Boeing estimates that the global passenger aircraft fleet will need to double over the next 20 years to meet the world’s growing appetite for flying, which will require 44,000 new aircraft. This is roughly double the number of aircraft the duo has managed to deliver in the last 20 years.

Could this open the door for aviation’s duopoly to become a trio? Rob Morris of consultancy Cirium thinks “it’s a matter of when rather than if.” But the obstacles to becoming a major passenger aircraft manufacturer are still insurmountable.

Developing a new aircraft will cost Boeing and Airbus perhaps $20-30 billion. For a newcomer, the expense will be even greater. They will need a decade or more to prepare designs, build factories, establish a supply chain, and gain regulatory approval before any revenue can be generated. What they produce will need to match or exceed the price and performance of the duo’s rival aircraft. They would then need to persuade airlines, which benefit from lower costs when operating a single-brand fleet, to switch. And they’ll need to build a large network of service technicians that every customer will need before they’ll sign a check.

Brazilian aerospace company Embraer is said to be considering replacing the duo. Its regional jets can seat a maximum of around 145 passengers, compared with typically 150 to 240 for Boeing’s 737 MAX and Airbus’ A320 family of short-haul aircraft. Few experts dispute his engineering prowess. However, the experience of Bombardier, which was once its rival in regional jets, shows that this is not enough. The Canadian firm has invested large sums of money to develop the CSeries jet, larger versions of which could compete with smaller versions of Airbus and Boeing’s short-haul aircraft. The financial strain this brought on the company, along with tariffs imposed by America following Boeing’s anti-dumping complaint, led the company to sell the program in 2017 to Airbus, which now markets it as the A220. Bombardier completely stopped producing regional aircraft in 2020, but it still produces business jets.

Taking on the duo from a stable start would be even riskier. After 15 years of rising costs and technical setbacks, Japanese industrial giant Mitsubishi Heavy Industries last year called time on a project to develop the SpaceJet, a small regional aircraft that would be the country’s first domestic passenger plane in decades. The MC-21, the much-delayed narrow-body jet from Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation, is said to be too heavy and have shorter range and lower capacity than planned. Although it could begin commercial service next year and has a few hundred orders domestically, it is unlikely to operate many flights outside Russian airspace.

flight risk

China’s determination to become an aviation superpower and its willingness to spend handfuls of yuan on the effort pose the biggest threat to the duo. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank, estimates that the Chinese government has given nearly $70 billion in subsidies by 2020 to COMAC, the country’s state-owned aviation champion, to develop China’s narrow-body rival, the C919. 737 MAX and A320 family. Designed in 2006, the aircraft made its long-delayed first flight in 2017. COMAC has now delivered six of its aircraft to customers and received orders for more than 1,000.

However, the C919’s range and capacity lag behind the competition. com( It will be difficult to attract international buyers. Outside its home market, only in Brunei, a startup with Chinese backers has ordered the C919. Western aviation regulators will be cautious about approving a new jet from a new manufacturer, and Western politicians may grumble about the domestic jet. Airlines buying Chinese planes .

Even if COMAC achieves its seemingly ambitious goal of producing 150 C919s a year within five years, it will remain a dead-spot. Cirium estimates that 1,800 short-haul jets will be sold annually by then, accounting for less than a tenth of COMAC’s total. Boeing still hopes to increase 737 Max production to 50 units per month by 2026. Airbus plans to produce 75 A320s per month by 2027.

However, a slow climb does not mean that COMAC will never reach heights. Cirium’s Mr Morris thinks it can capture 20-30% of the Chinese market of 6,000 short-haul aircraft within the next 20 years. China’s domestic aviation supply chain also needs to develop further. Only 14 of the C919’s 82 suppliers are Chinese, and many of the most complex components come from America and Europe. But the Chinese government is trying to change this. It is even said that he plans to enter the jet engine business by fighting against Western companies.

Airbus, too, was heavily dependent on government largesse when it first started building large jets (though it had the advantage of consisting of a consortium of long-standing European aerospace companies with aircraft-making experience). The first passenger plane, the A300, launched in 1969, was a commercial disappointment. However, it laid the foundation for the aircraft that came later. COMAC could similarly learn from the C919. Although details are scarce, the company is currently developing the C929, a model of which is on display in Farnborough. The long-haul aircraft will compete with Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and Airbus’ A330. COMAC is also said to be developing the C939, which will rival the even larger Boeing 777 and Airbus A350. Incumbents need to watch their tails.