The Talented Mr. Trump – CounterPunch.org

I’ve read the polls (as hard as it is to imagine Americans with landlines deciding elections), so you don’t need to read them, but all they tell me is that the country is close to electing a very good person as its next president. He’s criminally insane, and then perhaps he can further cement his psychosis with a House, Senate, and Supreme Court safely in the hands of Republicans like movie vaper Lauren Boebert, human trafficker Matt Gaetz, and paid vacationer Clarence Thomas.

I think the above might be more accurately written as “guilty and insane” (forensically, and there may be a difference for Judge Judy), but I think that would be splitting hairs – especially the strings that have diverged from Day in recent weeks. -Glo orange is what it looks like now Gulf Observer lifeguard blonde.

As a consolation, I can’t say I do much polling, in part because I meet plenty of pollsters in spin rooms, campaign events, and New Hampshire living rooms.

Personally, they remind me of the bettors who spend most of their lives in New York’s Off-Track Betting parlors, handicapping the fourth race at Aqueduct Raceway, for example, or circling the names of sure-fire horses in the tabloids. Daily Race Form– and then they muttered to themselves and threw their tickets on the coffee-stained floor when their ponies came in sixth place.

In the current horse race (perhaps in the future it will be known as election day) Supreme Court Classic?), pollsters’ sole purpose is to cover all angles so that once the contest is decided they can say, “We got it mostly right.” (Captain Titanic We can make the same claim.)

In this election, that means making the easy calls in advance: Kamala Harris will win the popular vote and Republicans will take control of the Senate. Then that means announcing that the Electoral College and the House of Representatives remain “too close to call” or “within the margin of error.” From now on you’re on your own.

In national polls (which means nothing since presidents are not directly elected in the US) Harris is ahead 47.9% compared to Trump’s 45.8%, while in the Electoral College battleground states Trump is ahead in three states (Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina) Harris is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada. In a mix of battleground state polls, Trump has a slight lead of 0.2%.

In its comprehensive model, the survey website 538 He says that if the election were held 1000 times, Harris would win 555 times and Trump would win 441 times; In four such simulated elections there would be no winner (and the matter would be decided by the House). 538 The projection is constantly updated as new survey data is added to the model.

Thanks, 538But if the Steve Miller group gets its way, we might not get a single pick, let alone 1,000.

Non-throwing model Real Open Politics (perhaps to sound alarm bells to the Trumpist readership?) It had Harris winning the Electoral College by a 276-262 margin, but that’s assuming she carries Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada (except for Michigan, where her margin is less than one percent).

Unexpectedly, the most complex, all-bases analysis emerges New York TimesPollster Nate Cohn wrote in his The Tilt column:

The key battlegrounds are clear enough: Polls show Ms. Harris leading in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, suggesting that would be enough to win the presidency, provided she wins the Democratic-leaning states and districts she currently leads. Ms. Harris does narrowly better than President Biden on average‘Election results in these states.

Meanwhile, national polls show Ms. Harris doing nearly two points worse than Mr. Biden‘results. Clearly, while Ms. Harris has shown resilience where it counts, Mr. Trump is polling better in non-competitive parts of the country. Together they diminish Mr. Trump’s size‘His advantage in the Electoral College.

Wake me up when you realize who you are Times He thinks he can win. I somehow doubt that language like this is considered a guess:

Since the polls are presumably focused on battleground states, we may not have a good idea until the final results come in November. If the results are more like the midterms, I win‘Don’t be surprised. Much crazier things have happened.

Personally, I’m skeptical of most polls, but at least the polls reveal a clear trend: In 2024, Americans could elect someone to their highest political office who is not just a financial fraudster, criminal, and convicted sexual abuser, but a person. His mental competency would have been questioned by any emergency crew who picked him up from the curb on a cold winter night (at the time he was claiming to have won the presidency in 2020 and describing immigrant Haitians eating Springfield’s dogs and cats).

One of the questions asked was “Do you believe Donald Trump is sane?” If there were, I could trust the polls more.

The truth is that countries routinely lose their collective minds. Germany did this in 1933 when it allowed Adolf Hitler’s National Socialists to seize power; But so did the United States when it turned a blind eye to a war in Vietnam for more than a decade, and today Russia is in the hands of a tsarist pretender. It is public knowledge that he may have stolen a trillion dollars.

In 1984 historian Barbara Tuchman devoted an entire book to what she called. March of MadnessIt’s about countries that have lost touch with reality over time. Doesn’t the re-election of the mentally disabled Donald Trump to the presidency require at least a footnote?

Frankly, there is no polling data on what it means for a large portion of American voters to support a physically, morally and politically unstable candidate in 2024.

I can only guess that Trump was given a national pass because he represents a brand whose gold-studded name is synonymous with power and money and carries more weight in the current election cycle than honesty, character, integrity or personal responsibility. Trump speaks as if he were babbling on national political issues. Crazy Books He wrote the script of his speeches.

Here’s something he said – picked almost at random – this week in Georgia:

Remember one more thing, I think it’s‘Terrible, lied about McDonald’s‘S. said: “I was a worker at McDonald’s‘s and I stood over the fries. I‘I’m going to McDonald’s‘in the next two weeks and I‘I’ll stop by the fries ’cause I want to see what your job is really about‘I didn’t like it because it never… I didn’t stand near the fries and it was hard. It was hot outside and the weather was hot… He never worked there, it was a lie. And when I asked him in the debate, I said, “I want to talk about this,” ABC said… ABC, by the way, is the worst of these. Have you seen David Muir?‘Have the ratings dropped a lot? I love that he can lose credibility (sic). I love it.

Maybe there is an application that translates Trump’s interludes into your language. Federalist Papers? Or at least makes him look normal?

No one trying to hire an eighth-grade social studies teacher or Little League coach would give serial criminal Trump a second glance, but he remains a serious candidate to become the Republican nominee and the next president.

Branding is the business equivalent of immunity (a commodity beloved by the Roberts Supreme Court) and has allowed fake entities of all kinds (think Enron, Lehman Brothers, Bernie Madoff, Theranos, etc.) to survive for years. Little more than fake bullets set up to draw blood from customers.

The genius (if that is the word) of the Trump brand is that it allows the grand wizard to wrap himself in the flag and thus, conveniently disguised, use the political system as a cover behind which he can save billions of dollars from the gullible. publicly (and later when he was forced to hide behind a corrupt Supreme Court).

In just the last two weeks, Trump has launched his own watered-down, three-card Trump Silver Coin ($31 silver in a $100 coin) and his own cryptocurrency, World Liberty Financial, as if it were an illusion to the public. Trump Media’s embezzlement listed wasn’t enough for one campaign season.

However, even though Trump is the political incarnation of Charles Ponzi, Trump’s fraud in the current election barely moves the outrage dial; He collects millions from his political supporters, who in return just want to attend his rallies and hear a few one-liners about him. Joe Biden.

Beyond a branding that grants immunity to reprehensible candidates, there is another element that renders American democracy nearly worthless: elections have been reduced to cheap, serial entertainment, yet another Netflix drama with sex, lies, and videotape.

Trump gets away with his sexual, financial, and political crimes because he is considered not as a potential state judge (someone who would lead a country at a critical time) but as a sitcom actor, vaudeville performer, or sideshow performer that Americans can digest (and enjoy) with their TikTok attention spans. In 2024, voting will be little more than a thumbs-up emoji.

Who needs to read opinion pieces on tariffs, monetary policy, climate change or Gaza when Trump is gossiping about open Haitians in your inbox every morning or “liking” Laura Loomer’s latest defense of apartheid in America?

The reality of 2024 is that the Republican Party is nothing more than a cult, a political Jonestown with Trump at the helm of his own version of the People’s Temple.

This may be true, and it may explain why Trump may be close to winning the election, but it overlooks the fact that Trump’s appeal is more like the Wizard of Oz, allowing him to have a hand in smoke and mirrors. The nation is hiding behind a shabby curtain.

We would do well to remember the Scarecrow’s words: “Some brainless people talk too much, don’t they?