Achieving 2°C climate target requires major increase in carbon capture and storage

A major expansion of carbon capture and storage is needed to meet the Paris climate agreement. But a new study by Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and the University of Bergen in Norway shows that without major efforts, the technology will not scale up fast enough to meet the 2°C target, and even with major efforts, it is unlikely to scale up fast enough to meet the 1.5°C target.

The idea behind carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is to capture carbon dioxide and then store it deep underground. Some applications of CCS, such as bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACCS), actually lead to negative emissions, essentially “reversing” emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. CCS technologies play a key role in many climate mitigation strategies, including net zero targets. However, current use is negligible.

“CCS is an important technology for achieving negative emissions and is also essential for reducing carbon emissions from some of the most carbon-intensive industries. However, our results show that major efforts are needed to close the gap between the demonstration projects in place today and the large-scale deployment we need to mitigate climate change,” says Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden.

A new study, titled ‘Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets’, conducted a comprehensive analysis of past and future growth of CCS to predict whether it could expand quickly enough for the Paris Climate Agreement. The study looked at the past 21 years of^st In the 21st century, no more than 600 Gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide can be captured by CCS.

“Our analysis shows that we are unlikely to capture and store more than 600Gt over 21 years.^st This contrasts with many climate mitigation pathways proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which in some cases call for capturing and storing more than 1000 Gt of CO2 by the end of the century. When looking at the overall amount, it is also important to understand when the technology can start working on a large scale, because the later we start using CCS, the less likely we are to keep the temperature rise to 1.5°C or 2°C. So most of our research has focused on how quickly CCS can be expanded,” says Tsimafei Kazlou, a PhD candidate at the University of Bergen, Norway, and first author of the study.

Reduction in CCS failure rate required

The study highlights the need to increase the number of CCS projects implementing this technology and reduce failure rates to ensure the technology “takes off” this decade. Today, CCS development is driven by policies such as the EU Net Zero Industry Act and the Inflation Reduction Act in the US. In fact, if all of today’s plans are realized, CCS capacity will increase to eight times today’s by 2030.

“Despite ambitious plans for CCS, there are major doubts about their feasibility. Around 15 years ago, during another wave of interest in CCS, planned projects failed at a rate of almost 90 percent. If historical failure rates continue, capacity in 2030 will be at most twice what it is today, which will be insufficient for climate goals,” says Tsimafei Kazlou.

A promising technology to overcome obstacles

Like most technologies, CCS grows non-linearly, and there are other technology examples to learn from. Even if CCS “takes off” by 2030, the challenges won’t be over. Over the next decade, it will need to grow as fast as wind energy did in the early 2000s to keep pace with the carbon dioxide reductions needed to limit global temperature rise to 2°C by 2100. Then, starting in the 2040s, CCS needs to reach the highest growth rate experienced by nuclear energy in the 1970s and 1980s.

“The good news is that if CCS can scale up as quickly as other low-carbon technologies, the 2°C target is (on the cusp of) achievable. The bad news is that 1.5°C is still out of reach,” says Jessica Jewell.

The authors say their analysis highlights the need for strong policy support for CCS, along with the rapid deployment of other decarbonization technologies to address climate goals.

“Rapid deployment of CCS requires strong support schemes to make CCS projects financially viable. At the same time, our results show that we can be confident that CCS can deliver 600 Gt of CO2 captured and stored for 21 years.^st “Other low-carbon technologies such as solar and wind energy need to expand even faster this century,” says Professor Aleh Cherp from Central European University in Austria.