What does history tell us about Jauan Jennings’ incredible Week 3 debut?

Jauan Jennings wasn’t on anyone’s radar heading into fantasy football season. He was the presumed WR3 on a team with two superstar wide receivers and a star tight end, and the 49ers also selected another receiver in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Jennings is a great prospect because of his familiarity with the offense and plus blocking abilityThere was no need for Jennings debates all summer long.

But man, we need one now. Jennings forced the issue with his explosive play against the Rams, posting a monster 11-175-3 line in Los Angeles last Sunday.

Baseball statistics legend Bill James pioneered a concept called “Baseball Stats.” Signature Importance. Importantly, while statisticians prefer large samples before drawing any conclusions with confidence, it is possible that in rare cases a performance is such a significant outlier that it negates the need for further evidence. If an anonymous rookie pitcher throws a no-hitter with 16 strikeouts on a random Thursday, that pitcher is likely to be a special talent. Ordinary players rarely reach such magnitudes, even allowing for randomness and variability.

So we ask: Has Jennings reached Signature Importance level with his stellar performance in Week 3?

History of WR “blowout” games

My first step in answering this question was to examine the historical context. Jennings had 46.5 points in full-point PPR leagues last week, which 37th best WR score in the modern fantasy era (From 2000 to today; thanks Professional Football Reference (for data). The other names on this list are a collection of superstars and very good players.

Jimmy Smith tops the list, a very good receiver who is going into the Hall of Fame. And you’ll find a lot of Hall of Famers (or likely future Hall of Famers) in that search: Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrell Owens, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans. Even past the Gold Jackets stars, you start to see a bunch of familiar names that are reliable fantasy options, guys like Will Fuller and Alshon Jeffrey, Eric Decker and Amani Toomer, Chad Johnson and Wes Welker. Even some of the comets, flashes and fades were fun. Dwayne Bowe that magical season. Josh Gordon was a superstar for a moment. Miles Austin could have played.

Who are the “worst” players on this list? I think Kevin Curtis and Drew Bennett. Kenny Britt. These are all fantasy players I used to trust. Britt had a semi-disappointing career and still has He had a WR22 season and another WR27 season. Curtis peaked at WR14. Bennett was the WR7 alongside Billy Volek He did magic.What a wonderful time to be alive.

To be fair, all the historical receivers I’ve collected here have played better than Jennings. So for balance, we need to consider some of the big performances that fall just short of Jennings. And I’m encouraged that most of the next 40 names are still of similar star quality to the players at the top of the page. The only big surprises on this list would be Albert Connell, Brian Hartline (now Ohio State’s receiver guru), and David Patten. Dig a little deeper and you’ll find Chase Claypool and Marty Booker.

If Jennings were anything like the players in the paragraph above, fantasy managers would probably be happy to oblige. And who knows — maybe he’s capable of doing even better than that.

Maybe history isn’t your thing. Let’s focus on what we do know. Jennings is tied to an exciting quarterback (Kyle Shahanan), a good quarterback (Brock Purdy) and a plus-size infrastructure. The 49ers currently have a bunch of big-time talents out with injuries, including Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. No one knows when CMC will play again, and while Kittle and Samuel could return quickly, we should be wary of injury trouble. Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall isn’t in the picture yet.

Jennings tape review it favors his breakout game. Sure, the Rams secondary dropped the ball here and there — especially on the first touchdown — but Jennings won on a variety of routes, and Purdy showed a willingness to throw the ball to Jennings in tight spaces. There’s trust and consistency there.

There’s nothing in this article that constitutes “proof” for Jauan Jennings, but “Wait for Proof” is a dead fantasy strategy. We have to evaluate what’s possible. Jennings certainly has the potential to grow his fantasy relevance even deeper throughout the season; he offers decent upside potential. That’s good enough for me. Put him on the proactive starter list for Week 4 and give him Circle of Trust privileges for now. There’s no guarantee, of course, but I’d rather see him on your roster than on your opponent’s.

All statistics and player rankings used in this article are sourced from Pro-Football Reference.