Hezbollah is not Hamas. Can Israel risk another all-out war?

After nearly a year of conflict in Gaza, Israel Increasing hostilities with Hezbollah Targeted covert operations in Lebanon communication devices and a brutal bombing campaign that killed hundreds.

The fight against Hamas has strained the Israeli army, with officials saying soldiers are given little rest, the economy is in its worst slump in years and public pressure is growing for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

It is unclear whether Israel plans to launch a ground offensive in Lebanon, or whether it will be forced to do so. But the question remains: Could the country be involved in a second front?

Regular cross-border fire has been exchanged between Hezbollah and the Israeli army since October 8, the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel. Hezbollah first opened fire on Israel to protest the war in Gaza and demanded a ceasefire there to end its offensive.

The stakes were raised last week when Israel wounded thousands across Lebanon, detonating pagers and radios used by Hezbollah. This was followed by an escalating exchange of fire.

Experts say that if Israel were to engage in a full-scale war with Hezbollah, it would face a much more powerful threat than Hamas, and would face costs to match.

“Hezbollah is not Hamas,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv and who served on Israel’s National Security Council under three prime ministers. Hezbollah is “a state within a state” with much more advanced military capabilities, he told CNN.

During the weekendThe group launched one of its deepest attacks into Israel, with the Israeli military reporting effects in Kiryat Bialik, Tsur Shalom and Moreshet near the port city of Haifa, about 40 km (25 miles) south of the border.

Cross-border clashes over the past year have led to the displacement of more than 62,000 people from their homes in northern Israel and the deaths of 26 Israeli civilians and 22 soldiers and reservists. According to Israeli media. Ahead of the weekend climb, More than 94,000 According to Reuters, more than 740 people have been displaced and killed on the Lebanese side, including around 500 Hezbollah fighters. Israeli strikes alone have caused at least 558 more people It has displaced 16,500 people, according to Lebanese authorities.

The main challenges Israel would face in a possible wider conflict with Hezbollah include:

A stronger enemy

The Shiite Islamist group, Iran’s closest partner in the region, has not only displayed more advanced weaponry over the past year but also has strategic depth through allies and partners in the Middle East, including in Iraq and Yemen.

While Israel’s military capabilities have increased since the 2006 Lebanon war, when the Jewish state did not yet have the Iron Dome defense system, Hezbollah’s arsenal has also increased.

Military analysts estimate Hezbollah has between 30,000 and 50,000 troops, but earlier this year its leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed he had more than 100,000 fighters and reservists. The group is also believed to have between 120,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles.

Its largest military asset is an estimated thousands of long-range ballistic missiles, including 1,500 precision missiles with a range of 250-300 kilometers (155-186 miles).

In the weekend attack, Hezbollah said it targeted Israel’s Ramat David air base with Fadi 1 and Fadi 2 missiles, longer-range weapons believed to be the first time these have been used. The base is about 30 miles from the Lebanese border.

Israeli army did not answer questions As for whether the base was affected, Israeli emergency services reported that three people were injured in the attacks.

“The warhead weight of these projectiles is reminiscent of the heavy Burkan IRAM (improved rocket-assisted munition) first used by Hezbollah against Israel last winter, but with a much longer range,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior researcher focusing on Iran and its proxies at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank in Washington, DC.

Ben Taleblu told CNN that Hezbollah’s attacks using these projectiles were “a possible way for the group to salvage its reputation without losing its head following Israel’s communications attacks and assault on senior leaders last week.”

Mizrahi said Israel’s ability to fight on two fronts relies heavily on U.S. support.

“The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) can fight on both fronts for a long time, and we have the capacity to do that with the ammunition we got from the Americans,” said Orna Mizrahi, a Hezbollah expert at the INSS, adding that if a full-scale war were to break out, the US would likely intervene to support Israel.

Israel also has a huge intelligence advantage, as seen particularly in last week’s audacious attacks on Hezbollah’s communications facilities.

Tense military

Israel is a small state and its military power is not unlimited. In preparation for a possible second war, the IDF is shifting some key troops from Gaza to the northern border.

“When you’re fighting on multiple fronts, you can’t invest so much on each front,” Mizrahi said. “So it’s going to be a different way of fighting.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last week that “the center of gravity has shifted northward” and that “forces, resources, energy” are now moving.

These units include Israel’s elite 98th Division, also known as Utzbat HaEsh, a paratrooper division thought to number between 10,000 and 20,000 soldiers, according to Israeli media.

Guzansky said the transfer of resources to Lebanon did not mean the Gaza war was over, but that Netanyahu felt compelled to deal with the northern front amid growing domestic pressure to facilitate the return of those evacuated from the area.

Analysts in the Israeli media and army officials have also repeatedly stated that the IDF is short of soldiers.

At the start of the war with Hamas, the army recruited around 295,000 reservists to increase its manpower, but this number is proving to be insufficient.

The conflict in Gaza and elsewhere has also had a negative impact on soldiers. 715 people have been killed so far Including in the north since October 7th.

“This is the longest war of its kind in Israeli history. It is longer than the War of Independence in 1948,” Guzansky said, adding that the aim of Hezbollah and Iran is to “gradually weaken Israel.”

“Firing rockets every day, even on a small scale, and occupying the IDF is putting the IDF under extreme pressure,” he said.

A declining economy

Israel’s economy has been hit hard since the first days of the October 7 offensive, becoming one of the biggest casualties of the war in Gaza. Thousands of businesses have been damaged as reservists abandon their civilian lives to take up arms, and the country’s economy is shrinking at an alarming rate.

“This will be devastating for the Israeli economy and Israeli society,” Guzansky said, adding that the effects will continue for years to come.

Among the 38 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Israel had the sharpest economic slowdown between April and June this year. he said in his quarterly report.

According to OECD data, the Israeli economy contracted by 4.1 percent in the first months of the war and continued to contract, albeit slowly, in the first and second quarters of 2024.

The slumping economy comes at a time when Israel’s military spending is skyrocketing. Earlier this year, Bank of Israel governor Amir Yaron warned that the war was expected to cost Israel as much as 253 billion Israeli shekels ($67 billion) between 2023 and 2025. Israeli media reportedThis amounts to about 13% of Israel’s GDP, plus regular military spending, which accounts for 4.5% to 6.5% of GDP annually. According to World Bank data.

The widening of the conflict has also affected Israel’s credit rating, making borrowing more expensive. multiple rating agencies The country’s credit rating has been downgraded since the war began.

In a statement made last monthCredit rating agency Moody’s warned that an all-out war with Hezbollah or Iran could have “significant credit implications for Israeli debt issuers.”

A crisis of legitimacy

Experts said a second front, which could do much more damage to Lebanon than to Israel, could be the final straw for many countries critical of Israel’s war in Gaza.

The global sympathy Israel received immediately after the October 7 attacks has turned to harsh criticism for its devastating response. Israel now faces charges of war crimes and genocide in international courts, charges it vehemently denies.

While Israelis showed greater interest in the Gaza conflict at the start of the war, polls show that support has waned in recent months.

There are differences of opinion among Israelis regarding support for the war with Hezbollah.

A published survey According to a July survey by the Israel Democracy Institute think tank, 42% of Israelis think their country should reach a diplomatic agreement with Hezbollah despite the possibility of additional conflict in the future, while 38% think Israel should win a military victory over Hezbollah, even at the cost of significant damage to civilian areas.

Despite the differences of opinion, support for war with Hezbollah is now lower compared to responses in late 2023. The survey said:

Guzansky said the pressure of war was most evident in northern Israel, where “people lost their jobs, their families were torn apart… people were killed.”

Having lived close to the front line for nearly a year, many of these residents believe that “only a full-scale war can change the reality in the North.”

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