Minnesota Poll: Walz approval rating holds steady amid VP run, has narrow edge in favorability

Gov. Tim Walz scored a marginally stronger favorability rating than former President Donald Trump’s running mate — Sen. JD Vance — in a new Minnesota Poll despite challenging decisions as governor that dented his standing with voters.

The same survey conducted on behalf of MPR News, KARE 11 and the Star Tribune also offers mixed reviews on the governor’s performance addressing crisis situations during his time in office.

The poll shows that 48 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Walz compared to 47.1 percent that had an unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, 42 percent of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Ohio Sen. JD Vance compared to 48.4 percent who had an unfavorable view of the Republican vice presidential candidate.

Mason Dixon Polling & Strategy conducted the poll of 800 likely voters between Sept. 16 and 18. The poll’s margin of sampling error is 3.5 percentage points.

Of the four major party presidential and vice presidential candidates, Walz was the only one to post a positive net favorability rating, although the difference between his “favorable” and “unfavorable” responses is statistically insignificant given the error margin. Former President Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris and Vance had wider negative net favorability ratings among poll respondents.

A majority of respondents said they approved of Walz’s performance in office, with 53.3 percent voicing approval and 44.4 percent expressing disapproval. That’s up slightly from a survey two years ago as Walz sought reelection.

COVID-19 and 2020 riots

People polled gave Walz a similar review for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 52 percent approving and 45.8 percent disapproving. Meanwhile, a majority disapproved of his handling of the riots following George Floyd’s 2020 murder; 52.4 percent disapproved while 43.5 percent approved.

Kent Hanson, a retired attorney from Minneapolis, said he supports Walz’s performance as governor. He said Walz did the best he could with the information he had in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and the nights of tumult that followed Floyd’s death as Minneapolis police officers held him to the pavement during an arrest.

“You’re trying to figure out in real time, what’s the degree of the threat, how is the thing being spread? What’s most important? What can we do about it? “So you’re on the side of caution, and I think he did that,” Hanson said. “And I think it was appropriate to do that.”

While there were hiccups in the state’s response to both the pandemic and the riots, Hanson said he appreciates that the governor takes responsibility for his actions.

“He acknowledges that, right? “It’s a stark difference to me, from what a lot of people do, where they’re never responsible for anything,” he said.

About 56 percent of voters polled in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties gave Walz better reviews for his response to the 2020 riots. Majorities outside those Twin Cities counties expressed stronger disapproval than approval.

Nancy Landaas voted early last week in Burnsville for former President Donald Trump. She did not participate in the poll but said she took a dim view of Walz.

“Look at all the things that he’s done in the past, and nothing’s been good. He let Minneapolis burn down. He didn’t do anything. “Right?” Landaas said. “There’s no way I would vote for him.”

Minnesota House Bump

The poll also indicates the race for control of the Minnesota House is a toss up. DFLers were the slightest preference — at 48.5 percent to 48 percent for Republicans. That’s basically a tie given the margin of sampling error and the sliver of voters still undecided about what party they want in charge.

Given that there are 134 separate races for House, local sentiment will loom large.

More respondents approved of the DFL’s handling of full government control than those who didn’t but it was also a tight split.

DFL House Speaker Melissa Hortman says Democrats have delivered.

“I think a continuation of the trifecta kind of fits where people are in terms of their common sense of what they’re looking for in their government.”

Republican House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth says it’s time for a change.

“Having Republican control of the House and having divided government is going to set us off on a better trajectory, all voices would be heard.”

November’s ballot also features only a single state Senate race, for a seat in the western suburbs that came open due to the resignation of a DFL lawmaker earlier this year. The outcome will decide chamber control given a 33-33 split now.

University of Minnesota political science professor Andrew Karch said Walz’s presence on the ticket could boost voter turnout for both Democrats and Republicans.

“It may have a mobilizing effect for the DFL excitement about having one of their own on the national stage, a chance to show these accomplishments from 2023 and 2024,” Karch said. “On the Republican side, I think it could mobilize those who want to relitigate some of the decisions that were made during those sessions.”

If Vice President Kamala Harris and Walz win in November, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would ascend to governor. Most respondents surveyed about Flanagan — 46.9 percent — had no opinion about the lieutenant governor. About 35 percent held a favorable opinion of her and 18.3 percent had an unfavorable view.

MPR News reporter Ellie Roth contributed to this report.

Editor’s note: Detailed poll results and complete methodology are available in a report prepared by APM Research LabMPR News’ sister organization. For continually-updated results of election-year polling in Minnesota, see Minnesota Poll Watch 2024.